Modelling day‐ahead electricity prices

A production‐based approach is introduced to take into account different attitudes and liabilities of market participants to discuss the equilibrium day‐ahead prices on electricity. Conditions ensuring the existence of the equilibrium are given and price distribution is considered. A discussion of reasons for high price volatility is given.     

A new test on the conditional capital asset pricing model

Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model(CAPM) is a puzzle in the finance literatureLewellen and Nagel[14]find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be implausibly large to explain important asset-pricing anomaliesUnfortunately, they do not provide a rigorous test statisticBased on a simulation study, the method proposed in Lewellen and Nagel[14]tends to reject the null too frequently.We develop a new test procedure and derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis.Also, we provide a Bootstrap approach to the testing procedure to gain a good finite sample performanceBoth simulations and empirical studies show that our test is necessary for making correct inferences with the conditional CAPM.     

Multi-population mortality models: A factor copula approach

Modeling mortality co-movements for multiple populations have significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. A few two-population mortality models have been proposed to date. They are typically based on the assumption that the forecasted mortality experiences of two or more related populations converge in the long run. This assumption might be justified by the long-term mortality co-integration and thus be applicable to longevity risk modeling. However, it seems too strong to model the short-term mortality dependence. In this paper, we propose a two-stage procedure based on the time series analysis and a factor copula approach to model mortality dependence for multiple populations. In the first stage, we filter the mortality dynamics of each population using an ARMA–GARCH process with heavy-tailed innovations. In the second stage, we model the residual risk using a one-factor copula model that is widely applicable to high dimension data and very flexible in terms of model specification. We then illustrate how to use our mortality model and the maximum entropy approach for mortality risk pricing and hedging. Our model generates par spreads that are very close to the actual spreads of the Vita III mortality bond. We also propose a longevity trend bond and demonstrate how to use this bond to hedge residual longevity risk of an insurer with both annuity and life books of business.     

Particle methods for PDEs arising in financial modeling

We numerically study convection–diffusion equations arising in financial modeling. We focus on the convection-dominated cases, in which the diffusion coefficients are relatively small. Both finite-difference and Monte-Carlo methods which are widely used in the problems of this kind might be inefficient due to severe restrictions on the meshsize and the number of realizations needed to achieve high resolution.We propose an alternative approach based on particle methods which have extremely low numerical diffusion and thus do not have the aforementioned restrictions. Our approach is based on the operator splitting: The hyperbolic steps are made using the method of characteristics, while the parabolic steps are performed using either a special discretization of the integral representation of the solution (which leads to a deterministic particle method) or a stochastic random walk approach.We apply the designed particle methods to a variety of test problems and the numerical results indicate high accuracy, efficiency and robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic methods. In addition, our numerical experiments clearly demonstrate that the deterministic particle method outperforms its stochastic counterpart.     

美式回望期权定价问题的有限体积法

随着金融市场的不断发展, 期权作为一种能够规避风险的金融衍生产品越来越引起投资者的青睐, 成交量呈逐年上升的趋势, 期权定价问题已经成为金融数学领域中一个重要的研究课题. 本文主要研究Black-Scholes模型下美式回望期权定价问题的数值解法. 美式回望期权定价问题是一个二维非线性抛物问题, 难以直接应用数值方法进行求解. 通过分析该问题的求解难点, 本文给出解决该困难的有效方法. 首先利用计价单位变换将定价问题转换为一维自由边值问题, 并采用Landau's变换将求解区域规范化; 而后针对问题的非线性特点,利用有限体积法和Newton法交替迭代求解期权价格和最佳实施边界, 并对数值解的非负性进行了分析. 最后, 通过与二叉树方法进行比较, 验证了本文方法的正确性和有效性, 为实际应用提供了理论基础.     

OPTIMAL HARVEST FEEDBACK RULE ACCOUNTING FOR THE FISHING‐UP EFFECT AND SIZE‐DEPENDENT PRICING

Abstract Fishing leads to truncation of a population's age and size structure. However, large‐sized fish are usually more valuable per unit weight than small ones. Nevertheless, these size‐related factors have mostly been ignored in bioeconomic modeling. Here, we present a simple extension to the Gordon–Schaefer model that accounts for variations in mean individual catch weight, and derive the feedback rule for optimal harvest in this setting. As the Gordon–Schaefer model has no population structure, size effects have to be accounted for indirectly. Here we assume a simple negative relationship between fishing effort and mean individual weight, and a positive relationship between mean catch weight and price. The aim is to emulate alterations of size structure in fish populations due to fishing and the influence of size on price per weight unit and eventually, net revenues. This demonstrates, on a general level, how such size‐dependent effects change the patterns of optimal harvest paths and sustainable revenue in single fish stocks. The model shows clear shifts toward lower levels of optimal effort and yield compared to classical models without size effects. This suggests that ignoring body size could lead to misleading assumptions and policies, potentially causing rent dissipation and suboptimal utilization of renewable resources.     

消费者偏好驱动的制销供应链利润分配策略

从企业社会责任对消费者偏好的影响入手,运用博弈论的基本思想,对制销供应链中,制造商与分销商一次性博弈的定价和利润分配策略进行了研究,并在此基础上对不同情况下制销双方重复性博弈的均衡结果进行了讨论.结果表明:在两类制销供应链中,联盟定价都是制销双方一次性博弈的唯一纳什均衡结果,且在制销双方商定的利润分配因子的取值范围内双方联盟后所得的利润高于联盟之前;在两类制销供应链中,制造商与分销商坚持联盟定价对双方的长期利润都是最优的.     

随机支付红利的跳-扩散模型的期权定价

假设股票随机支付红利,且红利的大小与支付红利时刻及股票价格有关,并假设股票价格过程服从跳—扩散模型(其中跳跃过程为Poisson过程)的条件下,建立了股票价格行为模型,应用保险精算法给出了欧式看涨和看跌期权的定价公式,推广了Merton关于期权定价的结果。     

Efficient pricing of discrete Asian options

Asian options are popular path-dependent financial derivatives. This paper uses lattices to price fixed-strike European-style Asian options that are discretely monitored. The algorithm proposed can also be applied to floating-strike Asian options as well because fixed-strike and floating-strike Asian options are related through an equation. The discretely monitored version is usually found in practice instead of the continuously monitored version usually encountered in the literature. This paper presents the first provably quadratic-time convergent lattice algorithm for pricing fixed-strike European-style discretely monitored Asian options. It is the most efficient lattice algorithm with convergence guarantees. The algorithm relies on the Lagrange multipliers to choose the number of states for each node of the lattice. Extensive numerical experiments and comparisons with many existing numerical methods confirm the performance claims and the competitiveness of our algorithm. This result places fixed-strike European-style discretely monitored Asian options in the same complexity class as vanilla options.     

A mathematical model for asset pricing

Asset price dynamics is studied by using a system of ordinary differential equations which is derived by utilizing a new excess demand function introduced by Caginalp [4] for a market involving more information on demand and supply for a stock rather than their values at a particular price. Derivation is based on the finiteness of assets (rather than assuming unbounded arbitrage) in addition to investment strategies that are based on not only price momentum (trend) but also valuation considerations. For this new model and the older models which were extracted using the classical excess demand function by Caginalp and Balenovich [2] and [3], time evolutions of asset price are compared through numerical simulations.